Freshspective

Refrigerated truckload
Nationally, refrigerated spot-market rates including fuel reached a record $3.60 per mile during September, surpassing the previous all-time high established in February 2022 during the pandemic.

However, the underlying story is very different. Linehaul-only rates remain well below the 2022 peak, highlighting how much of today’s pricing is being driven by fuel rather than freight demand alone.

East Coast United States
The Eastern refrigerated market has begun following expected patterns on the downside of peak produce shipping in northern growing regions. The Northeast experienced one of the largest declines in outbound load-to-truck ratios during September, reflecting improving equipment availability and easing capacity conditions.

While rates remain elevated compared to historical levels, much of the recent upward movement has come from fuel surcharges rather than underlying transportation demand.
Looking ahead, the Northeast market is expected to loosen further during October. Refrigerated trucking capacity should be readily available relative to the summer harvest period, although diesel costs will continue to support higher all-in transportation rates than many shippers typically expect at this time of year.

Central United States
Refrigerated market conditions across the Central United States continue to normalize following peak produce season. The Upper Midwest experienced meaningful relief in outbound load-to-truck ratios during September as harvest-related freight began moderating and capacity returned to the area from elsewhere.
At the same time, southern markets have seen linehaul rates move lower as demand softened from summer highs.

Despite easing linehaul costs, total transportation costs remain elevated because of higher fuel surcharges. As October begins, freight conditions across much of the region are expected to stabilize, with Texas and Upper Midwest markets following more traditional seasonal patterns.

While widespread capacity tightness is not anticipated, diesel prices will remain a key influence on shipper transportation budgets.

West Coast United States
The Western refrigerated market may be the tightest region in the country. The Pacific Northwest has experienced the most significant capacity tightening in recent weeks, supported by seasonal produce. Pacific Northwest capacity is expected to remain tight through October as the harvest continues.

Diesel prices exceeding $8 per gallon in parts of the region have pushed up refrigerated transportation costs at a time in the season when rates would normally soften. While the Southwest typically sees rates decline during September, conditions remained firm.

California markets are expected to remain heavily influenced by fuel costs. Even if linehaul pricing stabilizes, elevated diesel prices are likely to keep all-in refrigerated transportation costs well above seasonal norms.

OCEAN TRENDS - Global ocean freight markets continue to gradually stabilize, although regional disruptions and geopolitical risks remain. The security situation in the Red Sea and surrounding region continues to influence carrier routing decisions; however, several major carriers, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO, have expanded utilization of the Suez Canal on select trade lanes. These routing changes have improved transit times and supported gradual network normalization, while vessel traffic through the canal has continued to recover from crisis-related lows. Despite these improvements, carriers maintain contingency plans to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope should regional security conditions deteriorate. War-risk concerns and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence operating decisions and network planning. Demand for refrigerated equipment remains strong, particularly during peak produce export seasons in South America, where agricultural exports continue to drive reefer utilization. Equipment repositioning challenges and localized reefer shortages remain present in certain export markets, although overall service reliability and equipment availability have improved compared to prior years. Localized space constraints and equipment imbalances continue to occur across select trade lanes. 

TARIFF IMPACTS - The U.S. tariff environment remains highly dynamic and continues to present significant compliance and cost-management challenges for importers. The temporary Section 122 import surcharge expired on July 24, 2026, upon reaching its statutory 150-day limit. Simultaneously, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) implemented new Section 301 tariff measures applicable to approximately 60 economies, establishing a two-tier tariff structure generally ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent. As a result, many importers have experienced little overall reduction in duty exposure despite the expiration of the Section 122 surcharge, as the new Section 301 measures largely replaced the temporary surcharge framework. Existing Section 301, Section 232, antidumping, and countervailing duty programs remain in effect, and additional trade actions continue to be evaluated under multiple statutory authorities. Importers should continue monitoring developments closely, as trade policy remains subject to ongoing regulatory, judicial, and administrative developments. 

DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Following the September 23, 2025 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in World Shipping Council v. Federal Maritime Commission, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) ceased enforcement of 46 CFR Section 541.4, the provision governing which parties may be invoiced for demurrage and detention charges. The FMC subsequently removed Section 541.4 from the Code of Federal Regulations. The court vacated only that section of the rule and left all remaining Demurrage and Detention Billing Requirements fully intact. Accordingly, invoice-content requirements, the 30-day invoice issuance deadline, and associated billing dispute timelines remain enforceable. The FMC has indicated that future rulemaking may address invoicing responsibility; however, no replacement regulation has been finalized as of September 2026. As a result, contractual provisions and commercial agreements currently remain the primary mechanisms governing responsibility for demurrage and detention charges. Stakeholders should continue reviewing contractual allocations of demurrage and detention liability and ensure billing practices align with the remaining requirements of 46 CFR Part 541.\

REGULATORY & COMPLIANCE LANDSCAPE - The FDA continues implementation activities associated with the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Section 204 Food Traceability Rule. The compliance deadline remains July 20, 2028. Although enforcement remains deferred, FDA has continued conducting stakeholder outreach, public meetings, tabletop readiness exercises, and discussions regarding potential implementation flexibilities, particularly concerning lot-level traceability requirements. During 2026, FDA conducted additional stakeholder engagement activities and released supplemental implementation materials focused on compliance flexibilities and industry readiness. Many retailers, foodservice providers, and supply chain partners continue advancing traceability initiatives ahead of the compliance deadline and may require enhanced recordkeeping and electronic data-sharing capabilities before federal enforcement begins. Companies handling Food Traceability List products should continue preparing for compliance despite the extended implementation timeline.

ISPM-15 WOOD PACKAGING PROTOCOLS (UPDATED 2026) - Effective January 1, 2026, USDA APHIS and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) resumed full enforcement of the ISPM-15 hyphen requirement contained within the IPPC wood packaging mark. The agencies previously suspended enforcement during much of 2025 but confirmed there would be no additional grace period or soft-enforcement period following December 31, 2025. Shipments containing noncompliant wood packaging materials may be subject to cargo holds, re-export requirements, penalties, or other enforcement actions. Importers and exporters should ensure all wood packaging materials fully comply with ISPM-15 marking requirements, including the required hyphen separating the country code from the producer code, in order to avoid potential supply chain disruptions.

EMERGENCY BUNKER SURCHARGE - Emergency bunker, fuel, war-risk, security, contingency, and conflict-related surcharges continue to impact global ocean transportation costs. Although portions of the container shipping industry have cautiously resumed Red Sea and Suez Canal transits, many carriers continue to apply war-risk and contingency-based pricing mechanisms due to ongoing geopolitical instability, elevated insurance premiums, and operational uncertainty in the Middle East. Recent security incidents and periodic disruptions in the Red Sea, Gulf region, and adjacent waterways continue to create uncertainty regarding transportation costs, transit times, schedule reliability, and network planning. While freight markets remain generally balanced, carriers maintain the flexibility to adjust surcharge programs rapidly in response to security developments, insurance market conditions, fuel costs, and vessel-routing decisions. Importers and exporters should continue monitoring carrier advisories closely, as war-risk and conflict-related surcharges may be implemented, modified, or withdrawn on short notice.