After artificial tariff-related demand, some ocean markets are stabilizing
Bookings and rates are stabilizing as ocean markets head into late summer. Artificial demand was created by a 90-day lowering of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Demand will adjust again, now that the date for reinstating the higher tariffs has moved from July 9 to August 1. Specific to Chinese imports, the lower reciprocal tariffs don’t expire until August 12.
But the slowdown in front-loaded cargo from Asia has already led to substantial space availability, giving U.S. importers improved rate leverage for now. Carriers are expected to implement blank sailings to the U.S. West Coast in the next few weeks, in response to booking patterns and trade dynamics.
Starting October 14, carriers operating Chinese-built vessels will face additional costs when new U.S. port fees begin. Though capped at five assessments annually per vessel, the fees will particularly impact carriers like COSCO and Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) and will likely trigger surcharges or service restrictions.
Carriers continue reallocating capacity due to the ongoing Red Sea diversions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel deployment changes are expected to accelerate through September.
Shippers should develop contingency plans for potential geopolitical disruptions and service changes. Booking lead times may extend, if capacity tightens on major corridors.
Congestion intensifies at major transshipment hubs
Suez Canal diversions, adverse weather across Asia and Latin America, and restructuring of the carrier alliances have created severe congestion at major transshipment hubs. Delays are expected through fall.
North European ports face the most significant bottlenecks, with average vessel dwell times extending three to five days at Rotterdam, Antwerp, Le Havre, Bremerhaven, and Hamburg. Labor strikes and staffing shortages compound operational challenges, while inland transport networks struggle to clear cargo backlogs. Congestion is unlikely to ease before October as peak season volumes arrive.
West Mediterranean ports including Valencia, Algeciras, and Tanger Med face similar constraints as Middle East and Indian Subcontinent cargo diversions overwhelm terminal capacity with unprecedented transshipment volumes.
The new Gemini Cooperation hub-and-spoke model—concentrating cargo at fewer major European ports before distributing to smaller destinations—has further intensified pressure on already strained facilities.
Shippers using European gateways should expect extended transit times and consider alternative port rotations where feasible. Advanced booking and flexible inland transport arrangements will be critical to minimize disruptions. Those with flexibility should explore direct services to smaller regional ports to bypass major hubs.
Middle East tensions create new shipping volatility
Ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel continue disrupting shipping services, prompting major carriers to suspend or modify Middle East port calls. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has stopped accepting dangerous goods cargo to Israeli terminals, while A.P. Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended Israeli services entirely. COSCO pulled its U.S. West Coast-to-Middle East string, leaving MSC and CMA CGM as the primary carriers serving the region.
Vessels continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz under heightened security protocols, with carriers implementing war risk surcharges. Port rotations are being adjusted to minimize vessel exposure, while cargo requiring alternative routing through European or Asian transshipment hubs faces seven to 14 additional transit days and elevated freight costs.
Equipment repositioning challenges are emerging as carriers avoid port calls, creating container shortages for backhaul cargo. Insurance premiums continue rising for vessels transiting these waters, with costs passed through to shippers via security surcharges.
Service volatility will continue through late summer as the security situation remains fluid. Shippers with Middle East cargo should secure alternative routing options and build additional lead time into delivery schedules. Those with flexibility should consider consolidating shipments to reduce per-unit surcharge impacts and explore alternative gateways through Türkiye or Jordan.
Schedule reliability shows modest improvement
Global vessel schedule reliability reached 65.8% in May, marking a five-month high and reflecting notable reductions in average delays. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd continue to lead operational improvements, while Evergreen and other carriers show steady month-over-month and year-over-year gains.
Collaboration among key alliances, including the Gemini Cooperation and MSC, has contributed to more consistent vessel arrivals in April and May. However, reliability varies widely across carriers. Some are still operating in the 55-60% range, underscoring the need for continued progress.
Market factors such as port congestion and geopolitical tensions may pose ongoing risks to schedule stability. As the shipping industry enters the peak summer season, carriers are expected to maintain or improve reliability through enhanced operational efficiency and alliance cooperation.
Asia
Asia–U.S.
Higher Transpacific shipping volumes are showing signs of easing in the wake of what had been a July 9 date for the United States to resume higher reciprocal tariffs. That date has now been pushed to August 1 for imports from most countries. Imports from China continue at lower tariffs until an August 12 deadline. Compared to the tariff-related swings in volume on the China trade lanes, Southeast Asia demand has remained more stable—reflecting diversified sourcing strategies and sustained manufacturing output.
Carriers removed 30% of U.S. West Coast (USWC) and 40% of U.S. East Coast (USEC) vessel capacity in May, anticipating weaker volumes after tariffs spiked in April. Capacity restored in early June after tariffs were lowered has exceeded demand, driving spot rates down rapidly and reducing the competitiveness of intermodal routing compared to all-water services via the Panama Canal. Carriers are expected to implement blank sailings to the USWC in the next few weeks. USEC and Gulf routes maintain more balanced supply-demand dynamics, supporting stronger rates.
This creates significant cost advantages for shippers who have routing flexibility, particularly those moving non-time-sensitive cargo.
Stabilizing of demand is expected to continue through July as tariff-related frontloading dissipates. Rate stabilization is anticipated in August as typical shipping flows resume, though disparities between U.S. West and East coasts may persist into early autumn.
Asia–Europe
Unlike the sharp rate corrections on Transpacific routes, Asia-Europe rates face gradual downward pressure as carriers compete for cargo amid moderate demand. Port congestion at North European terminals is keeping vessel utilization tight on Asia-North Europe routes, despite softening demand.
Asia-Mediterranean routes are expected to see demand deceleration as the European summer holiday season begins, with flexible cargo benefiting as carriers carefully manage capacity. Container availability is better compared to congested Northern European terminals.
Rate pressure will continue through the summer slack season. As European holidays dampen cargo volumes, carriers are likely to implement selective blank sailings. Capacity discipline and vessel deployment optimization will be key to market stability heading into autumn peak season.
North European port congestion is expected to persist through August, making advance booking essential for time-sensitive cargo, while Mediterranean routes offer better schedule reliability and competitive rates.
Shippers should consider securing Asia-North Europe capacity well in advance due to port bottlenecks, while taking advantage of softer Asia-Mediterranean rates during the European holiday period. Building buffer time into delivery schedules remains essential.
North America
U.S. West Coast terminals remain congestion-free. With throughput below capacity limits, drayage operations show rapid truck turn times while container dwell periods remain well below historical averages. Chassis availability remains strong across Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland, while rail connectivity shows minimal delays at intermodal facilities.
Equipment repositioning challenges may emerge as carriers adjust vessel deployments and sailing frequencies. Empty container availability for exports remains constrained as carriers prioritize profitable Asia-bound rotations, though West Coast ports maintain better equipment supply compared to Gulf Coast terminals.
U.S.–Asia
Export volumes remain below normal, creating terminal fluidity but limiting container availability for carriers on Asia import routes. Container shortages could intensify as export demand recovers, particularly affecting agricultural and manufacturing exporters.
Asian port congestion compounds delivery challenges for U.S. exports. Singapore is operating at 90% terminal capacity, while widespread bottlenecks affect China's major ports and Malaysia's Port Klang. U.S. exporters relying on transshipment services to secondary Asian markets face extended transit times and unpredictable schedules. Agricultural products encounter increased spoilage risks due to prolonged dwell times.
Exporters should consider securing container commitments early and build transit time buffers for agricultural shipments to account for Asian port delays.
U.S.–Europe
Vessel space from U.S. ports remains critically tight due to the restructuring of carrier alliances and extensive blank sailings. Shippers must book three to four weeks in advance to secure space, with U.S. Gulf Coast terminals experiencing the most severe constraints.
Several factors drive Gulf Coast constraints: Gemini Cooperation's U.S.-flag service allocates significant capacity to government cargo, petrochemical resin exports have reached record levels, and European port congestion limits available sailings.
North European delays are expected to persist through August as infrastructure constraints worsen. Antwerp-Bruges operates at 100%-yard utilization with three-day wait times, while intermittent labor strikes compound network-wide delays. Rail service disruptions and low water levels on European river systems further impede cargo movement to inland destinations.
Mediterranean ports face similar congestion pressures as longer Cape of Good Hope routings prompt earlier holiday season inventory builds.
Space availability should gradually improve through August as carriers restore suspended capacity, but advance booking remains essential.
U.S.–South Asia, Middle East, Africa
COSCO, Hapag-Lloyd, Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM), and Ocean Network Express (ONE) have suspended Pakistan services due to operational complexities from routing adjustments and ongoing India-Pakistan transshipment restrictions. These suspensions reduce direct service options for Pakistani cargo.
Remaining carriers face increased demand, likely driving rate increases and extended booking lead times for Pakistan-bound cargo. Reduced service frequency may create capacity bottlenecks during peak shipping periods.
Shippers requiring Pakistan connectivity must work with remaining carriers or route cargo through Middle East transshipment hubs, where regional tensions create additional service uncertainty. Alternative routing through Dubai, Jebel Ali, or Colombo adds three to seven days to transit times and increases costs.
U.S.–Oceania
Direct carrier space has opened considerably as demand softens and freight rates decline. Hapag-Lloyd, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), and A.P. Moller-Maersk have resumed regular port rotations as U.S. East Coast (USEC) congestion eases, allowing more predictable vessel schedules.
CMA CGM's Pacific Australia Direct service continues experiencing occasional U.S. East Coast port omissions due to European network delays affecting vessel positioning. The carrier reinstated regular Sydney calls with MV CMA CGM Red departing New York June 24, signaling service restoration as schedules stabilize.
Labor negotiations at Patrick and Hutchinson terminals scheduled for later this year pose operational risks for Australian ports, though both sides are working toward agreements without service disruptions.
Europe
July rate hikes see mixed results
While major carriers announced July 1 rate increases, market response has been uneven as tariff-driven urgency subsides. Rate sustainability varies considerably by carrier and service string, with premium services maintaining increases better than basic offerings.
Demand normalization is expected through July as elevated inventory is absorbed into supply chains. Rate pressure will likely intensify as carriers compete for regular volumes. Capacity adjustments may follow if demand softening accelerates.
Mediterranean service recovery continues
Mediterranean trade lanes show sustained volume growth with stable capacity across service strings. Despite ongoing schedule reliability challenges, demand remains strong as regional economies strengthen.
Summer slack season traditionally dampens European cargo volumes through August, with carriers expected to implement blank sailings to support rate levels during holiday periods. Reliability improvements remain a priority as carriers balance network optimization with service consistency.
South Asia, Middle East, Africa
Indian subcontinent exports normalize following tariff deadline
Space constraints from Nhava Sheva and Mundra to the U.S. East Coast are easing as carriers restore suspended capacity and demand stabilizes following the transition from front-loading to normalized booking patterns.
Geopolitical tensions complicate regional routing
India-Pakistan tensions continue, forcing Pakistani cargo through Colombo transshipment rather than direct Indian port calls. This is adding three to five days to transit times and increasing logistics costs. South India exports increasingly utilize Colombo as a transshipment hub to avoid operational complexities, concentrating volumes at the terminal.
Strait of Hormuz risks threaten regional connectivity
Iran-Israel tensions pose risks to the security of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, potentially affecting 3.4% of global container flows if military escalation occurs. Alternative routing through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope would add significant transit time and costs for Asia, Europe, and U.S. East Coast cargo.
South America
Central America congestion disrupts West Coast South America trade flows
Port congestion across Central America remains elevated despite slight improvements from June. Vessels traveling north from Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia face significant delays. These bottlenecks reduce northbound capacity and extend transit times to North American markets.
West Coast routing offers capacity relief
West Coast South America to U.S. West Coast services show improved space availability as vessels bypass congested Central American transshipment hubs. Carriers provide more competitive rates and reliable allocations on these direct routes, particularly benefiting cargo with inland transportation flexibility.
Southern Chile faces acute capacity constraints
Shipments from southern Chilean ports have limited space availability to the United States, Canada, and Central America because carriers are prioritizing higher-yield cargo while managing disrupted vessel rotations. Equipment shortages compound booking challenges for exporters.
Rate premiums continue for guaranteed space allocations, particularly from southern Chilean origins where service frequency remains constrained. Transshipment-dependent routes through Central America face schedule uncertainty.