Mat: Welcome to the February Robinson Edge video. I'm Mat Leo and joined as always by Ryan Hammett to discuss the latest developments in the global freight market.

Today we will cover the Suez Canal starting to open back up again, the new CDL rule by the U.S. government, as well as some of the recent tariff and trade deals. Ryan, let's start off with the Suez Canal situation.

We're beginning to see selective returns to Suez routings instead of diverting around the Cape of Good Hope. But it's not at full capacity yet, right?

Ryan: Correct. Two of the largest ocean carriers have begun testing the waters via the Suez Canal on certain lanes. And yes, Mat, that pun—testing the waters—was actually intended there.

This route has been largely avoided since 2023. So this is a significant development because routing around the Cape of Good Hope adds roughly 10 to 14 days to transit times, increases fuel burn, and ultimately ties up vessel capacity.

If the Suez stabilizes, even partially, it changes the math on transit reliability and effective global capacity. When vessels detoured around the Cape, it didn’t just lengthen transit times—it absorbed fleet supply as more ships were required to maintain those weekly service strings. That artificially tightened capacity and supported rates.

So a gradual return to Suez effectively adds capacity back into the system without building a single ship. But the key word here is gradual. Steamship lines aren't just flipping a switch overnight.

Mat: Right. The risk remains. And beyond just the security concerns, insurance costs and geopolitical stability all influence whether carriers fully commit. So what we're really watching for is consistency.

If the Suez remains viable for an extended period of time, you could see schedule reliability improve and some softening of pressure on long haul ocean rates, especially in the Asia to Europe and potentially even the Asia to U.S. East Coast lanes.

Ryan: And that has downstream implications for North American supply chains. More predictable arrival windows reduce port bunching, which helps drayage, warehouse throughput, and even domestic truckload capacity. But I’d caution shippers against assuming immediate relief. Networks take time to rebalance.

Even with the Suez reopening, carriers are still managing blank sailings and capacity discipline. So it's less about a sudden rate drop and more about reduced volatility if this stability holds.

Mat: Now let's pivot to the new CDL ruling finalized February 13th and going live on March 16th.

Under the finalized rule, eligibility for new issuance or renewal is now limited to H 2A, H 2B, and E 2 visa holders. That means those with Temporary Protected Status, as well as DACA recipients, are now ineligible to renew their CDLs.

One important point is that this prevents renewal—it does not revoke existing CDLs. Federal investigations revealed that most non domiciled CDLs were issued with five years of validity, meaning a large shock to supply is not expected, but rather a long, gradual pace of attrition as licenses come up for renewal.

Ryan: That five year renewal cycle is critical. Depending on when a license was issued, the exit effect could stretch across multiple years. During that time, drivers may be able to requalify under other visa programs or resolve their immigration status.

The broader market context matters. While we’ve seen tightening in the truckload marketplace, we’re not at a point of being undersupplied. The truckload market tends to search for balance. If capacity exits gradually, that could create space for new entrants if rates improve.

The U.S. carrier base is very resilient—more so than it gets credit for. So the question is: How much capacity is expected to be removed in total over these five year?

Mat: Yeah, that’s a good point. The headline number that caught attention was the DOT estimate that about 194,000 non domiciled CDLs could be impacted. But that number needs context. That figure includes all CDL holders, such as bus drivers, dump truck operators, drivers in private fleets, straight trucks, or even inactive holders who maintain a CDL but don’t actually actively use it.

Ultimately, there are not 194,000 active Class 8 for hire drivers that will be affected. Combined with the five year phase out period, the impact is significantly mitigated.

Ryan: This also isn’t happening in isolation. We do have cumulative regulatory pressure. English language proficiency enforcement, the modernization of FMCSA registration processes which resulted in higher denial rate, thus limiting new entrants, broader ICE enforcement, rising insurance scrutiny, and potential EPA 2027 cost increases that could add more than $20,000 per truck.

Individually each may feel small, but collectively they tighten the system over time. Regulatory announcements can act like a mini Roadcheck week—creating uncertainty and volatility—but finalization of this rule adds clarity. Markets prefer certainty over ambiguity, and because implementation is phased, we see the impact as measured rather than disruptive.

Mat: Now let’s move on to our final topic of trade.

February brings several updates expected to impact various industries. Tariff shifts and new trade agreements are creating a more complex sourcing environment. Some tariff relief measures are extending exclusions on select goods, while other categories face tighter enforcement and scrutiny.

Ryan: Retail is especially sensitive. Margins are tight, and tariff adjustments can swing total landed costs significantly. Many retailers are continuing diversification strategies leaning into Southeast Asia, Mexico, and nearshoring models to reduce China dependency. But the transition isn’t linear—each shift changes freight flows, port pairings, and mode mix.

Mat: Automotive is another major pressure point. Rules of origin under USMCA remain essential, and any tariff or compliance adjustments ripple through cross-border supply chains. Automotive tends to be high-volume and time sensitive freight, so even small customs disruptions can create production delays that immediately affect truckload and cross border capacity demand.

Ryan: Energy and healthcare bring additional trade nuance. Energy equipment often moves project based and is sensitive to tariff cost structures. Healthcare, meanwhile depends on regulatory precision and supply chain continuity—if customs enforcements tighten or documentation requirements increase, that could slow inbound medical equipment or pharmaceutical inputs.

These aren’t just trade policy stories—they’re also freight stories.

Mat: The overarching theme here is that trade policy is not background noise, it directly shapes freight demand patterns. Shippers that integrate customs strategy with transportation strategy are better positioned. Waiting until duties change to adjust logistics usually means higher cost and reactive moves.

Ryan: Exactly, and we’re seeing companies scenario plan more aggressively. I’ve had multiple conversations with companies using digital twin capabilities solely to run full scale scenarios that have data to answer multiple questions.

What if tariffs rise? What if they’re reduced? What if sourcing shifts from Asia to North America? Each answer reshapes trucking lanes, ocean demand, air utilization, and cross border flows.

The most resilient supply chains are designing flexibility in advance.

Mat: As we wrap up, across new ocean routings, CDL regulation, and trade policy, one theme stands out: adjustment without shock. None of these changes individually flips the market overnight, but together they influence balance.

The ocean market is watching route normalization, truckload is gradually absorbing regulatory tightening, and trade flows are adapting to policy shifts. It’s not chaos—it’s just recalibration.

Ryan: And recalibration rewards preparedness—whether that’s booking early on ocean, monitoring exposure in your carrier base, or aligning trade and transportation planning. Proactive strategy wins.

The freight market always searches for balance. The question isn’t whether it will adjust—it’s who is prepared to adjust with it.

Make sure you partner with your C.H. Robinson account team on what your next steps are. And remember, C.H. Robinson goes further than anyone else in providing the Edge you need to manage a complex global transportation strategy. For more details, reference the insights page on our website.