Asia service pared back while European capacity and rates improve
Asia
Tariff deadline extended
Asia-U.S. air freight demand was predicted to peak around the 9 July deadline for reinstatement of higher U.S. reciprocal tariffs and then decline sharply as importers completed their front-loading. Now that the 9 July deadline has been extended to 1 Aug. to give countries more time to negotiate new trade deals with the United States, it remains to be seen how that will affect air demand.
Vietnam has reportedly reached a deal with the United States, though no details have been released. China still faces an 12 Aug. deadline to finalise a new trade deal before lower reciprocal tariffs expire.
Airlines reduce capacity
Carriers have been implementing service changes, including flight suspensions and route reallocations, that they planned in conjunction with the originally scheduled 9 July reinstatement of higher U.S. tariffs. C.H. Robinson will be closely watching for any changes that might occur as a result of the deadline being pushed to 1 August.
E-commerce volumes remain suppressed
E-commerce flows from Asia to the United States continue at reduced levels following the May elimination of the de minimis rule that allowed duty-free delivery for low-value packages. Recent U.S. Customs and Border Protection enforcement targeting e-cigarette deliveries has further dampened volumes, while European demand remains steady but softening during holiday periods.
Europe
Capacity improves with summer schedules
Air freight capacity has improved with summer schedule implementation, creating additional space particularly for southern European destinations. Belly capacity growth remains flat globally, but European routes benefit from increased passenger flight frequencies during peak travel season.
Demand and rates remain stable
Demand continues at stable levels despite trade policy uncertainties. The lower U.S. reciprocal tariff rates of 10% have been extended to 1 Aug. while the European Union continues to negotiate a trade deal. In the last two weeks leading up to the original 9 July deadline, front-loading activity had already subsided, creating more balanced capacity across European routes. As carriers adjust capacity to match demand patterns, standard belly cargo benefits from competitive pricing.
Service reliability affected by carrier transitions
Schedule reliability remains generally stable across European networks, though Air France-KLM and Delta's cargo system implementation is creating operational irregularities that may affect service consistency during the transition. Geopolitical constraints in the Middle East continue limiting alternative routes for certain flows.
Latin America
Seasonal transition dampens demand
Air freight demand is entering the traditionally slower third quarter, following strong first-half volumes driven by perishable exports including flowers from Colombia and Ecuador and seeds from Chile and Argentina. Carriers are implementing capacity adjustments to align with reduced demand through late summer.
São Paulo congestion creates operational challenges
Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) faces ongoing congestion due to capacity constraints, cargo handler labour shortages and infrastructure limitations. This is causing delays in cargo tendering and increasing risks of missed airline cutoff times for Brazilian exports. Alternative routeing through Viracopos International Airport (VCP) is being used to mitigate Guarulhos congestion issues.
Oceania
Capacity from Oceania has tightened, with delayed departures and elevated rates to both the Americas and Europe as Northern Hemisphere summer passenger demand peaks. High passenger loads are reducing belly capacity, creating competitive conditions for freighter allocation and consolidation opportunities.
Delays and backlogues at major transshipment hubs are extending transit times, particularly for oversized cargo requiring dedicated freighter uplift. These operational constraints are compounding delivery challenges for shippers dependant on passenger aircraft belly space.