MAT: Welcome to the November Robinson Edge Video. My name is Mat Leo and I'm joined by Ryan Hammett to talk about the latest developments in the global freight market. Today we will cover the truckload market outlook, cross-border dynamics between Mexico and the U.S. and finally we'll touch on the newest trade deals. So, let's get into it.

RYAN: The U.S. dry van spot market is holding steady, after a diverging trend from seasonal norms to start the quarter. Rates have stabilised, but they have done so at a slightly higher level than where they were previously. It isn't a huge increase and rates still remain depressed, which is why we’re still seeing net carrier attrition, but it is enough for us to change our future outlook.

MAT: Right and as you mentioned, this change is more due to the recently higher costs. The forecast line, however, remains very similar in shape to what we previously expected, just slightly elevated. This change moves our 2026 dry van spot cost/mile projection to a modest +4% y/y, up from the previous +2% forecasted. While capacity does continue to exit the market due to over-supply, low rates and regulatory changes, so far, those exits remain gradual. But this gradual tightening creates a foundation for spot rates to spike any time a disruption hits.

RYAN: Exactly. And looking forward, 2026 is going to be influenced by strict enforcement around non-domiciled CDLs and English proficiency. At this point shippers should plan for localised or short-term volatility from these enforcement actions rather than a nationwide capacity crisis. As you alluded to, Mat, those regulations haven’t hit supply yet, but they will slowly filter out drivers, adding incremental pressure.

I had a conversation just last week with someone that I think makes the point - capacity is currently trending in a direction that any noticeable increase in freight volumes or any large trigger event could definitely cause stress on the market. We are essentially losing the elasticity in the market but based on where freight demand is currently trending, there's not much at the moment to test that elasticity.

MAT: So the practical takeaway? Keep your contracts refreshed, maintain some optionality in routeing guides and spot market offerings and focus on service stability. The market’s oversupplied for now, but it’s structurally weakening underneath. Now shifting to Mexico, trade continues to surge, especially for non-automotive manufacturing and high-tech equipment.

September exports were up nearly 14% y/y and the northbound demand at Laredo and El Paso corridors is keeping rates firm—even with a soft U.S. market. Nearshoring continues to persist, moving from concept to execution, but it’s phased, not all at once.

RYAN: The operational friction is where shippers can run into issues. Customs congestion, dray scheduling and border capacity mismatch do remain as big risks. Even when carriers are available, a single misstep in documentation or in routeing can cascade into late deliveries.

MAT: Exactly. And the lesson for shippers: don’t treat cross-border freight the same as U.S. trucking. Integrate customs, dray and linehaul planning. Longer lead times and pre-positioned documentation aren’t optional—they’re essential. It's about execution, not just routeing.

RYAN: Agreed. Also, we're seeing that the seasonality is changing. “Slow” months aren’t as slow any more and peaks don’t match historic norms. Shippers that can provide volume certainty and flexibility will win the best capacity. Tools and partners that give real-time visibility across the border are now competitive advantages.

Mat, let's move our conversation a bit North where California’s regulatory spotlight is growing. The state lost over $40M in federal funding over English Language Proficiency enforcement and in early November California revoked 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs after federal scrutiny. The good news: they are starting to comply, but the questions remain—will funding be reinstated and how consistently will rules be applied?

MAT: As far as the funding goes, that withholding of $40M of federal funds from California was just specific to the English Language Proficiency ruling, there was a separate threat to withhold $160M of additional funding if California didn't take action on non-domiciled CDLs, which as you mentioned, they have begun to address that. One important thing to keep in mind is that DOT has notified those 17,000 CDL holders that their licences will no longer meet federal requirements and will expire in 60 days from the notification.

So, for those looking for an impact analysis, we'll likely need to wait another couple of months before we can tell. Now also, Ryan, we've discussed this before, but not all CDL holders actively drive a heavy-duty truck hauling freight for-hire, so that 17,000 number should be seen as an absolute maximum.

RYAN: That's right and the bigger picture is that strict credentialing and licensing stipulations is increasing the barriers for entry for carriers, which combined with the compounding carrier attrition could translate into capacity pressures down the line.

MAT: Now transitioning from domestic to foreign Government affairs, the U.S.-China trade deal has eased some immediate pressure: reciprocal tariffs at 10%, reduced fentanyl-related tariffs, suspended port fees and extended Section 301 exclusions. That’s especially meaningful for electronics, industrials and consumer goods relying on those Chinese components. Not to mention averting the threat of an additional 100% tariff shock that would have come on 1 November.

RYAN: But trade activity isn’t just related to China as we've had recent trade deal announcements and some strong rumours that more are coming soon. For example, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam removed tariffs on most U.S. exports. Imports from those countries into the U.S., however, will carry high tariffs of 19-20%, but at least there is some stability now from those deals.

But there is still plenty of uncertainty around trade policy remaining. The potential of an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports was threatened by the U.S. administration but so far nothing has resulted from that threat. And there is ongoing uncertainty from the Supreme Court case on IEEPA authorities.

MAT: The high court heard oral arguments for this case on 5th November, but it takes several months for the rulings to come. Now, due to the importance of this case, a ruling is likely to be expedited and despite having until the end of July to officially rule a decision is likely in December. If the court rules the president has exceeded his authority, it raises questions about a potential refund process for tariffs already paid, right Ryan?

RYAN: Yes, it does, but importers should know that a robust or prompt refund process is not guaranteed. In one example, during the hearing on 5th November it was mentioned that potentially only those named in the case could receive refunds. A ruling could specify retroactive refunds or only prevent tariffs from being applied to future deliveries. If the ruling does address refunds, these could occur in one of two ways: Either U.S. Customs would process the refunds automatically or customs brokers might need to undertake additional work to secure them.

MAT: If tariff authority under IEEPA is struck down, we would expect the administration to continue negotiating trade deals with individual countries and seek broad-based tariffs under Section 232 and 301 authorities as these are well-established tools that have survived previous court challenges and allow tariffs to be imposed on goods from specific countries and on specific commodities regardless of that origin.

RYAN: I think that was a great reminder, Mat. The President has several different authorities still available should IEEPA be overturned, so continued diligence around trade policy developments is going to be critical. I'll also add in related news, Customs Border patrol has denied nearly 6,000 deliveries entry into the U.S. in the first 9 months of 2025 and that’s due to the Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act.

While most of these denied deliveries were from the automotive and aerospace industries, it still underscores an important takeaway. Customs strategy is supply chain strategy. Documentation, audits and trade compliance aren’t optional—they protect service and cost. We recommend you Invest now to avoid unplanned costs later.

MAT: Actually Ryan, I think that across all four topics that we’ve touched on today, the theme is clear: the market may quiet, but it’s certainly not calm. Capacity is loose but structurally tightening, Mexico cross-border flows are complex, California regulation is increasingly driving more friction and global trade policy remains a wildcard.

RYAN: That's it. Proactive planning is essential. Diversify sourcing partners as needed, simplify your customs workflows, hold your providers to compliance standards and maintain flexibility across modes and regions. Stability does exist, but you have to design for it. Treat this environment as an opportunity to reinforce your supply chain resilience. That is the real competitive advantage going into 2026.

I'll also add a reminder that global freight networks are complex and they’re dynamic. We should always remember that there is very rarely just one thing that will make or break the market. There could be a trigger event, but there are many other supply and demand factors that have to come together to make a meaningful difference in the market. Keep that in mind when you are being inundated with lots of headlines.

Thanks for watching today and remember, C.H. Robinson goes further than anyone else in providing you with the edge you need to manage your complex global transportation strategy. For more details and additional content, reference the Insights page on our website.