Truckload market tightens as disruption risks grow

Hurricane season arrives as capacity is increasingly sensitive to disruption

The U.S. truckload market is entering the peak of hurricane season with considerably less slack than in recent years. While the National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal 2026 hurricane season for the United States, with three to six hurricanes forecast, any significant storm affecting a large metropolitan area could be a meaningful disruption to a tight truckload marketplace.

The availability of drivers continues to be affected by English language enforcement, increased scrutiny of non-domiciled CDL holders and other regulatory moves related to immigration policy. At the same time, carriers are navigating uncertainty tied to trade policy, diesel fuel costs and geopolitical events.

While capacity remains available in most markets today, the margin for absorbing disruption has narrowed, increasing the likelihood that localised events can create impacts that ripple across the broader transportation network.

Hurricanes influence freight markets through three distinct phases, demonstrated in the graphic below.

• Before a storm arrives, shippers often accelerate outbound deliveries and reposition inventory while carriers move assets away from the projected impact zone. This combination can tighten regional capacity and drive short-term increases in spot rates.
• During the storm, freight movement is largely limited to emergency and relief supplies due to safety concerns.
• After the storm passes, recovery efforts begin, but the duration and magnitude of this phase depend heavily on the severity of the storm, population density and economic activity in the affected region.

Major storms affecting large population centres can create weeks or even months of elevated freight demand as essential goods, building materials and recovery supplies move into the damaged area. These shifts can attract trucks from neighbouring markets, reducing capacity availability outside the immediate impact zone.

For the flatbed market, the impact often extends well past the storm itself, as rebuilding and infrastructure repair efforts generate sustained demand for construction materials and project-related freight in the weeks and months that follow.

How should shippers prepare for hurricane impacts?

Especially if your freight moves through the Southeast or Gulf Coast regions, first and foremost have a disruption plan in place before a storm develops. Shippers should consider inventory strategies, delivery timing flexibility and contingency transportation options now rather than during an active weather event.

For flatbed shippers in particular, identify potential project risk. While some contractual freight may experience route-guide failures or service challenges, the most severe impacts of a hurricane are typically felt in the spot market, where both capacity can tighten and rates can escalate quickly. Understanding where you have flexibility in your supply chain today can help to mitigate both cost and service disruptions when a hurricane affects freight flows.

In today’s supply-constrained market, disruptive events have proven to be much more impactful than historical averages. Hurricane landfall would be no different.

Average hurricane impact on local cost per mile

U.S. spot market

Since July, spot rates have mostly trended in line with expectations, allowing C.H. Robinson’s 2026 dry van spot-rate forecast to remain unchanged.

Heading into the second half of the year, many shippers are beginning the planning process for 2027. One key consideration is what phase the market will be in. The truckload market is rather cyclical. Rates rise, reach a peak then decline once trucking supply outpaces demand. With an oversupply of carriers, rates stabilise and eventually bottom out. This cycle of four phases—expansion, peak, contraction and trough—have occurred time after time.

The market now sits in the expansion phase, but shippers should consider what this will look like in 2027. Each phase tends to last 9-12 months, with the exception of the most recent trough from 2023 to 2025. Historical timing suggests that rates in 2027 will primarily be in the peak phase of the cycle, where rates are up year over year, but with a slowing magnitude of change.

Market cycles over time and associated dry van rates

U.S. spot market forecast: Dry van truckload

The C.H. Robinson 2026 dry van cost-per-mile forecast remains at +34% y/y.

C.H. Robinson spot market dry van truckload forecast

U.S. spot market forecast: Refrigerated truckload

The C.H. Robinson 2026 refrigerated van cost-per-mile forecast has decreased to +33% y/y.

C.H. Robinson spot market refrigerated truckload forecast

Contract truckload environment

The following insights are derived from C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions™, which serves a large portfolio of customers across diverse industries.

Route-guide depth is an indicator of how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies when their awarded transportation providers reject a tender. A route-guide depth of 1.0 would be perfect performance and 2.0 would be extremely poor. Route-guide failure is when the route guide has been exhausted with no one accepting a tender, sending the delivery into the spot market.

As displayed in the following chart, route-guide depth remained flat at a historically low level from 2022 through 2025. Beginning in late November 2025, the first signs of a changing market showed up as route-guide depth surpassed 1.3 for the first time in years. Since then, route guides have remained challenged due to decreasing capacity.

For the month of July, route-guide depth across all North America deliveries was 1.41, which was improved compared to the previous month of 1.45.

From a mileage perspective, long hauls of more than 600 miles had a route-guide depth of 1.65 in July, which was better compared to the prior month of June 2026 at 1.71 and worse compared to July 2025 at 1.32. For shorter hauls of less than 400 miles, the route-guide depth for July 2026 was 1.27, which was slightly better than the previous month of 1.28 but worse than July 2025 at 1.14.

North America route-guide depth metrics: By length of haul

Geographically, the Northeast experienced the smallest change of all regions, remaining flat compared to the previous month, while the South experienced the largest change, improving by 4.8%. Route-guide depth remains between 1.22 and 1.55 for all regions.

U.S. route-guide depth metrics: By region

Route-guide failures decreased from the peak of 7.5% during the week of July 4th, demonstrating the expected seasonal softening in the truckload market following the holiday. While the route guide failure rate has decreased to some of the softest levels in the past three months, it remains significantly higher than previous years’ levels.

U.S. route-guide failures

Voice of the carrier

What are asset-based carriers saying about the current freight environment? These are observations from a cross-section of the contract carriers in the C.H. Robinson network—the largest in North America.

Market

• Carriers report that market tightening continues to be driven more by capacity constraints than by a significant increase in freight demand.
• Pricing remains firm, with shippers increasingly pursuing contracts to secure reliable service and reduce exposure to spot market volatility.
• Selectivity is increasing as carriers prioritise customers, lanes and freight that support efficiency and profitability for their network.

Drivers

• Driver recruitment and retention remain the industry's top operational challenge, with the pool of qualified drivers continuing to shrink.
• Drivers continue to prioritise home time, predictable schedules and regional opportunities, forcing carriers to adapt workforce strategies.
• Higher wages, improved benefits and increased recruiting investments are becoming necessary to maintain staffing levels and support service commitments.

Equipment

• Carriers remain disciplined in fleet investment, focusing on replacing ageing equipment rather than adding meaningful net capacity.
• Fleet growth remains limited despite strengthening market conditions, contributing to a gradual tightening of available capacity.
• Rising equipment, maintenance and insurance costs continue to influence capital decisions and slow large-scale fleet expansion.

Refrigerated Truckload

East Coast United States

Temperature-controlled freight conditions across the Eastern United States continue to reflect a mix of seasonal tightening and emerging areas of relief. In New England, capacity has tightened as expected for this time of year and is likely to remain constrained through the remainder of the summer produce season. Similar trends have developed across the Upper Atlantic, where rates have moved higher with stronger seasonal demand.

The Ohio River Valley has experienced some of the most volatile conditions in the region, with significant swings in demand creating equally volatile load-to-truck ratios and resulting in elevated transportation costs.

Further south, the Lower Atlantic experienced substantial rate increases throughout much of July, although early signs of easing began to emerge heading into August. The most notable shift occurred in the Southeast, where outbound refrigerated costs declined sharply as regional produce volumes fell and the summer harvest season began winding down.

While this improved outbound capacity availability, it has also created new challenges for inbound freight, particularly into Florida. With fewer outbound opportunities available, carriers have become more selective about serving the region, reducing the attractiveness of inbound loads and creating potential service challenges for shippers moving freight into the Southeast.

Central United States

Refrigerated market conditions across the Central United States softened during the second half of July as demand retreated from peak summer levels. The South Central region experienced the most significant decline, with outbound freight volumes falling sharply and load-to-truck ratios moving lower as a result.

While transportation costs have also eased, cost-per-mile declines have lagged the reduction in demand. This is consistent with broader national trends, as carriers continue to face elevated operating costs.

The Midwest and Great Lakes regions are following a similar trajectory, though at a more moderate pace. Freight demand and load-to-truck ratios are down, but pricing remains elevated compared to historical norms. The Upper Midwest remains the primary exception. Seasonal harvesting activity, particularly corn, is creating localised spikes in refrigerated demand and contributing to periodic capacity tightening.

These agricultural movements are generating uneven market conditions and preventing rates from declining as quickly as in other parts of the region. As harvest activity expands over the coming weeks, the Upper Midwest is likely to remain one of the tighter refrigerated markets in the country.

West Coast United States

The West Coast refrigerated market remains largely balanced overall, though conditions are beginning to diverge. In California, outbound demand has moderated somewhat compared to earlier in the summer. Load-to-truck ratios are down modestly and cost-per-mile trends have begun to ease, reflecting a more balanced supply-and-demand environment.

However, these conditions are not uniform. Pockets of tightened capacity continue to emerge sporadically across the state, depending on harvest schedules, commodity flows and specific origin markets.

In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is entering a period of increasing seasonal pressure. Harvest activity for key commodities such as cherries and onions accelerated as July ended, driving a noticeable tightening in available refrigerated capacity. As additional crops move into harvest over the coming months, demand for refrigerated equipment is expected to increase further.

Historically, refrigerated pricing in the Pacific Northwest continues to strengthen through the fall harvest season and into Thanksgiving and conditions suggest a similar pattern may develop this year. Shippers moving freight out of the region should expect tighter capacity and continued upward pressure on rates as harvest activity expands.

Flatbed truckload

The flatbed market experienced some short-term volatility around the Fourth of July holiday, with conditions tightening briefly before gradually easing through the remainder of the month. Despite this temporary disruption, trends remained consistent with seasonal expectations as peak building season began to moderate. National DAT load-to-truck ratios declined to 39:1, the lowest weekly reading since late January, indicating that capacity is becoming more readily available across much of the country.

Even with this gradual easing, rates are expected to remain well above those of the past three years, reflecting a transition toward a more balanced flatbed market rather than a return to what had been unusually soft conditions.

Demand signals across traditional flatbed sectors remain mixed. According to the National Association of Home Builders, builder confidence for new single-family homes declined two points in July to 34. For context, a score higher than 50 is an indication that the majority of builders feel confident about the current and near-term outlook for housing.

This sentiment has remained below 40 for 15 consecutive months, the longest such stretch since 2012, highlighting continued caution about the residential construction market. Current home sales, sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic all weakened during the month, reinforcing the view that elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continue to weigh on new home construction activity.

Manufacturing activity, however, continues to meaningfully contribute to flatbed demand. ISM Manufacturing PMI accelerated to 55.6% in July, the highest reading since May 2022, showing the sector remained firmly in expansion territory, with new orders growing for the seventh consecutive month.

Strength in manufacturing, combined with significant investment in AI infrastructure and data centre construction, should help support industrial freight demand in the months ahead. These projects are helping offset the weakness in residential construction and providing a stable foundation for flatbed volumes. 

While market conditions have become more predictable, attention is now shifting to hurricane season as a potential source of regional volatility. Tropical systems can disrupt transportation networks, tighten capacity and create localised price increases across affected regions.

Looking ahead, conditions are expected to keep following normal seasonal patterns. Capacity should gradually improve through August as construction demand moderates, although regional tightening and short-term pricing volatility remain possible due to weather and local projects.

Although further stabilisation is anticipated, recent history has demonstrated how quickly freight markets can change. Hurricanes, shifts in trade policy, geopolitical developments and other unforeseen events have repeatedly introduced sudden volatility into the transportation landscape.

Maintaining close communication with your C.H. Robinson account team remains one of the best ways to stay ahead of changing market conditions. Access to timely market intelligence, regional capacity trends and proactive planning can help to identify potential risks early and position supply chains to respond effectively as conditions evolve.

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